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Russian Publisher, Australian Columnist, Living In Dubai, Gazing At Two QE2s

[Posted via Google's Sidewiki]

"Frommer's recommends the restaurant's
 chicken fried goat with beans and an RC Cola."
 Oddly, while searching for articles about Egypt's erupting revolution, I discovered Moscow's RIA Novosti columnist, Joe Barden, an Aussi financial maven way outback in Dubai. He writes a weekly column well worth checking out.

The one linked here, QE 2 - A Ship That Will Never Sail Again, is engagingly written and explains how the QE 2 came to be permanently docked in Dubai, and then muses convincingly about the other QE 2, the one that Federal Reserve Chairman captains, commonly known as quantitative easing. This is the program wherein the Fed will purchase some $600 Billion in federal securities from banks in order to provide them more money to loan - which, by the way, they do not appear to have much interest in . . .

In any event, read Barden's column, and learn how the Queen Elizabeth 2 wound up in Port Rashid, terminally docked and slated for the hotel business. Then move on to that other QE 2 and get an intriguing viewpoint from an Aussi in Dubai!


In reference to: Sam’s Exchange: QE 2 – A Ship That Will Never Sail Again | Columnists | RIA Novosti

The Egyptian Military: Mubarak's Friend Or Foe?

Mubarak says he'll fire govt
but people are asking for regime change
not a change in the regime!
#egypt #jan28
about 21 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

How long empty?
Ah, Egypt. The land of various and sundry mysteries where, this week, the newest mystery is 82 year old President Hosni Mubarak's future - and Egypt's. Yesterday, in response to the riots throughout the country, Mubarak disbanded his government (exempting himself), and promised reform, hinting at promoting better living conditions, encouraging fewer horrific beatings by his police force, and rooting out corruption.

His strongest words, however, stressed that his first responsibility was to restore order, and this he did by dispatching the army to back up his police force. Punching up the police with the army would seem to provide Mubarak a modestly reliable cohort, yet news reports indicate soldiers, particularly conscripts, were doing little to control the riots, and were often on friendly terms with the demonstrators they are there to suppress and control.

This isn't too surprising since the Egyptian all male army is largely manned by conscripts between the ages of 20 and 30. Their loyalty to Mubarak, demographically, appears on the surface to be another mystery not yet solved. Given that the average age in Egypt is 20, demographically, this young conscript army has far more in common with the rioting revolutionaries than with a leader they may consider well past his prime.

A key, perhaps the key, to this revolution - whether Mubarak stays or goes - will be the soldier in the ranks and where he places his ultimate loyalty. Will he, if ordered, fire into crowds of people more like him than like the octogenarian Mubarak and his corrupt crew?

A necessarily related question arises: Will army personnel engage the police force? Both forces are massive - Egypt's police force and army both have hundreds of thousands actives and reserves; Egypt's armed forces

Eqypt's President Mubarak Tweets Nation.

In case you haven't seen this, here's Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak's tweet to the Nation following last night's televised speech.


Glenn Beck . . . Crying . . . In Funny Hats.

  If you're stuck indoors today with nothing but time on your hands here's a fun place to idle away:  VillageHatShop.com's Hat Try On feature.
Here's some fun I had with Glenn Beck.  All you need to do at the HatShop website is upload a pic and have at it! (Click on those below for a larger version.)
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Jay Carney Named New White House Press Secretary - View Candidates' Audition Tapes.

According to the New York Times, Jay Carney, the spokesman for Vice President Joseph Biden, will replace Robert Gibbs as the White House Press Secretary.  Carney, a former Time magazine reporter, was today designated for the post by William Daley, President Obama's new White House Chief of Staff.  A formal announcement is expected tomorrow.

CNN Senior White House Correspondent Ed Henry got the scoop, and reported that even though Carney was "the clear front-runner for the job," Chief of Staff Daley, upon ascending to his post,
reopened the process to more candidates to make sure they were making the right move, and that second round of considerations has come to a close with Carney at the top of the list, [a White House] source said.
This blog is fortunate enough to have a well-placed source deep within the bowels of the White House Office on Plumbing Affairs. We were therefore able to secure for our readership a copy of each PressSec candidate's video audition tape, featured below.

For those with long memories, some of the candidates may be familiar. For example, one served back in the George W. Bush cabinet, and was well-known for giving the kind of virtuoso press conference that left the press corps stunned with mouths agape. In the first video below, this gentleman submitted a scene from a briefing where he clarified certain White House approaches to analyzing CIA intel reports. 

Another surprise candidate, Phil Davison, a 2010 GOP candidate for Ohio's Starke County Treasurer, holds a Master's Degree in Communications. His stump speech below demonstrates the oratorical skills he might have brought to the PressSec's job.  As you will see, it's obvious that the other candidates also brought superior skills to the table.

Clearly, Daley's recommendation of Mr. Carney to President Obama must have been a difficult one. As you will learn below, the PressSec competition was both highly professional, as befits the importance of the position, and highly spirited, as befits the new spirit of competition urged upon us by the President in his State of the Union address.

Enjoy your review. Who would you have chosen?  Please use the comment area to reply.



A former
SecDef clarifies
complicated 
policy process. 
Phil Davison,
A 2010 GOP candidate
on the stump.
A present Member
of Congress reaches out to
the loyal opposition.
A former teen spokesperson
explains
her
education policy.
Jay Carney: The presumptive
PressSec
replies to a query
about Sen. John McCain.

Rachel Maddow's Big Ooops!

Well. let's face it, these days, even for the soft-hearted Rachel, those metaphors are hard to avoid . . .

I really meant to say
"all prim and proper."

Tribal Partisanship, Authoritarianism, And Violent Rhetoric.

Tribe Trumps All.   At Slate.com on Monday Shankar Vedantam's interesting article, Partisanship Is the New Racism, revealed how recent psycho-sociological scholarship is changing the way partisanship is understood. Primarily, he explains, academics have begun to believe that partisanship is not the result of matching our thinking about the issues of the day to the party that supports them.

It's quite the opposite, Vedantam writes. Evidence is emerging that "our party loyalties drive our views about issues, not the other way around." And this effect is the result of social identity: "I'm a Democrat because people like me are Democrats, or I'm a Republican because people like me are Republicans." 

Social identity as a member

of a tribe is the trump card,

not the issues of the day . . .
 
This helps explain why partisanship as a corollary of a group's slow-to-change social identity remains intact "even though each group's rational interests might be better served by the other party."

Social identity as a member of a tribe is the trump card, not the issues of the day: "race, gender, religious affiliation, geographical location—play an outsize (and largely hidden) role in determining our partisan affiliations." And like racism, partisanship implies discrimination against "those who do not belong to our group."  Moreover, given the moral taint that accompanies open bipartisanship, like racism, we try to appear non-partisan as much as we possibly can; Vedantam calls it that old familiar plausible deniability.

He concludes:


If partisanship and racism are both tied to social identity, then a post-partisan America is about as likely as a post-racial America. Our views on issues may change, but our identities remain stable over Decades.Democrats and Republicans sitting together in Congress will no sooner put an end to partisanship than gay men, black women, and Alabama hunters will give up their tribes.

The Emboldening Effect Of Violent Rhetoric.  One commenter on Vedantam's article, Martin Kobren, offered a different analysis, one we've heard over the years, the authoritarian personality. And, if the academic research is accurate, the highly ingrained partisanship through social  identity will get worse, not better, despite the recent cooling off period in response to the Tucson  
 
To read more click (not surprisingly) "Read More" at the right.

It Takes A Village . . .

Can you tell me where
I can find a Starbucks?
Next They Want One That Looks Like San Francisco.  Washington Post Staff Writer Al Kamen reported Friday (at page 2) a nifty opportunity for a construction company willing to see its project immediately blown up by shells from a 105 mm howitzer.  Mr. Kamen wrote:
The Haqqani clan and other Taliban types in North Waziristan and in the rugged Afghanistan mountains may think those Predator attacks are a major problem. But things may be getting worse for them soon, judging from a recent Air Force solicitation notice.

Cannon Air Force Base, just west of Clovis, N.M., is looking for a contractor to build a "rustic village which reflects the likeness of an Afghanistan village." The base, pretty much in the middle of nowhere near the Texas-New Mexico border, warns that the "site is remote, and located on Melrose Firing Range

What's more, "with exception of non-potable well-water, there are no utilities available," the notice says, so bring your own generator, water, porta-facilities and so forth.
Definitely - defiantly - rustic.

HMMMM . . . My brother-In-Law Has A Backhoe. And I have a hammer. So, excitedly, I sought out the Air Force's offer, and found it at FedBizOpps.com. In case you're interested, here it is (I highlighted the best parts):

Mountain Village and Caves Construction Solicitation Number: FA4855-11-R-0004
Agency: Department of the Air Force
Air Force Special Operations Command
Location: 27 SOCONS
Solicitation Number: FA4855-11-R-0004
 Notice Type: Sources Sought
Synopsis: Added: January 12, 2011 
Cannon Air Force Base, located 10 miles west of Clovis, NM , is conducting a market survey with the intent of determining the interest, capabilities and qualifications of potential small businesses in performing construction of a Mountain Village and Caves as a PRIME contractor for a potential firm fixed-price ( to include economic price adjustment FAR Clause 52.216-4). A firm requirement has not yet been established. Upon review of industry response to this Sources Sought Synopsis, the Government will determine whether a set-aside acquisition in lieu of full and open competition is in the Government's best interest. 

The contractor shall be required to provide all labor, materials, tools, and equipment in order to perform all excavation and concrete work or similar for construction work to build a rustic village which reflects the likeness of an Afghanistan village. The site is remote, and located on Melrose Firing Range. With exception of non-potable well water, there are no utilities available. In addition to the Mountain Village construction, this project will incorporate four caves to be composed of, at minimum, 36" thick, 5000 psi reinforced concrete, to withstand repeated 105mm target practice rounds and 40mm armor piercing rounds. Necessary site work for site build-up may include, but not limited to: clearing and grubbing where applicable, and providing of own means of electricity for construction.
Hell, I'll do it for nothing!

If Your Face Appears On The NCTC 2011 Calendar, Arrest Yourself Immediately!

Tired of the same old Nuns Having Fun calendar?   Need to know how far to run away from bombs of various sizes?  Is your New Year's resolution to "get more involved in counterterrorism?  If so, the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) has got a calendar for you!


<>
Perhaps he'll choose
door-to-door sales:

"Hello lovely lady
of the house. I am Rex
Hamilton. Does your
health insurance 
company often
drive you to rage?"

The Handy 2011 NCTC Calendar and Weekly planner
provides This image of Osama bin Laden As He Might appear at your door. or Is that the new guy at your pool club.?
That and Much Much More, and it's Free!

This 2011 weekly planner provides information on "known terrorist groups, and individual terrorists." Also, you can find out what reward money you may collect if you're energetic enough (I am) --  Osama is still worth $25 Million so he tops my list! Get technical information on topics like biological and chemical threats, too. All in a handy 160 page download - it's not available in stores. Moreover, the NCTC website includes an interactive map identifying terrorist influence in the world, and a timeline of terrorist attacks through the years.

Of course, the interpretative portions of the calendar come from governmental analysts - nothing remiss or surprising there.  Some will question the interpretations - for example, Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz are nowhere mentioned.  Yet, for by far the most part, the calendar, and the extras at the NCTC, like the interactive map and timeline, are excellent sources for researchers no matter what your political stripe.

Below is a downloadable NCTC calendar, visit their website for more.

ct_calendar_2011

Arizona - No Taxation Without - Or With - Representation!


"The first thing we do, let's kill all the taxes."
A mild paraphrase of Shakespeare's

Ken Silverstein's July 2010 Harper's Magazine article, Tea party in the Sonora: For the future of G.O.P. governance, look to Arizona  (see an excerpt at Huffington Post today) surveys the political landscape of that Tea Party dominion, Arizona. It's relevant today as the GOP has seized control of the House and maintains its unofficial "filibuster majority" in the Senate. Give it a read!

Below are some excerpts from the abridged version at HuffPo (you'll have to subscribe to Harper's Magazine to get the full version). In reference to: Tea party in the Sonora: For the future of G.O.P. governance, look to Arizona—By Ken Silverstein (Harper's Magazine)
Since the days of Barry Goldwater, an axiom of Arizona politics, particularly among Republicans, has been that tax cuts generate economic growth in all circumstances. Hence total state taxation has declined during fifteen of the past seventeen years; the individual income tax has taken the biggest hit, but sales, property, and corporate-income taxes have also come down substantially. The legislature has created tax exemptions for everything from country-club memberships to pedicures to food purchases by airlines (the latter at the behest of local airline lobbyists). None of this has produced the hoped-for effect. Although tax cuts “have lowered government revenues,” they “have not had any perceptible effect on the state’s economic growth,” concluded an Arizona State University business-school study, published last November, that examined the past three decades of fiscal policy.
Instead, to raise cash, the legislature has pursued a series of wild sell-offs and budget cuts. It privatized the capitol building and leased it back from its new owner, an arrangement that brought in substantial revenue but over time will cost Arizona far more. The legislature has sold off numerous other state properties at bargain prices, and has put up future lottery revenues as collateral on a $450 million loan. Meanwhile, Arizona removed more than 300,000 adults from state health coverage and terminated one health-care program for 47,000 poor children. Funding was slashed at the agency that deals with reports of child abuse and neglect, and also at Children’s Rehabilitative Services, so that parents of children with cystic fibrosis, cerebral palsy, and a number of other conditions are now required to pay 100 percent of treatment costs. 
The anti-government attitude in Arizona is now reflexive, especially because of its entanglement with the issue of immigration. As one local resident, who didn’t want to be identified because she has a government job, told me: “People who have swimming pools don’t need state parks. If you buy your books at Borders you don’t need libraries. If your kids are in private school, you don’t need K-12. The people here, or at least those who vote, don’t see the need for government. Since a lot of the population are not citizens, the message is that government exists to help the undeserving, so we shouldn’t have it at all. People think it’s OK to cut spending, because ESL is about people who refuse to assimilate and health care pays for illegals.”

Incoming GOP Government Reform Chairman Darrell Issa To Big Business: "Give Me My Marching Orders"

Darrell Issa (R-CA), someone for
 Dems to beat their heads against.
Corporations Have Feelings Too. Cento-Millionaire House member, Darell Issa (R-CA), announced that he will form a new club on Capitol Hill to protect put-upon corporations from regulatory discrimination. Issa's ascendancy to the Chairmanship of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee promises to put on display the beliefs and attitudes that earn him a consistent 90+% voting record from the American Conservative Union. In fact, as Chairman of the only congressional committee with "reform" in its title, Issa views the reform of government as akin to deconstruction bordering on chaotic demolition. Imagine, Darell Issa, arch-conservative-post-structuralist!

Mobilizing his forces quickly, Issa sent a flurry of letters to club member corporations and trade associations requesting his marching orders.  According to Politico, Issa's missives included the American Petroleum Institute, the National Association of Manufacturers, the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, Bayer, and approximately 150 other club members. As you'll read below, he sought their opinions on which governmental (read, "Obama") regulations were especially off-putting.

Here's presumptive Chairman Issa's letter:
The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is examining existing and proposed regulations that negatively impact the economy and jobs.

In fiscal year 2010, federal agencies promulgated 43 major new regulations. These regulations ranged from new limits on “effluent” discharges to new rules for Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations. The new limits on “effluent” discharges from construction sites will cost $810.8 million annually resulting in the closure of 147 construction firms and the loss of 7,257 jobs. In total, the administration estimated the cost, often referred to as the hidden tax, of the 43 new regulations to be approximately $28 billion, the highest single year increase in estimated burden on record, resulting in thousands of lost jobs. This new burden is on top of the $1.75 trillion estimated burden of existing regulations.


As a trade organization comprised of members that must comply with the regulatory state, I ask for your assistance in identifying existing and proposed regulations that have negatively impacted job growth in your members’ industry. Additionally, suggestions on reforming identified regulations and the rulemaking process would be appreciated. Please submit your response as soon as possible, preferably before January 10, 2010.
Issa's spokesloon, Kurt Bardella, got to the gist of it in appropriately plaintive voice:
"Is there something that we can do to try to ease that [regulatory] burden and stimulate job creation?" he added. "Is there a pattern emerging? Is there a consistent practice or regulation that hurts jobs?"
Bloomberg.net reports that Issa spokesloon Bardella waxed on about the plight of America's corporate downtrodden, perhaps bringing tears to listeners' eyes :
“Maybe this disdain for job creators is why the current policies in place have failed to create the type of long-term, permanent jobs the American people were promised,” said Bardella. He said the committee aims to gain “insight from job creators who have felt shut out of the policy process so that we have a better understanding about what regulatory barriers are standing in the way of job creation.”
This, of course, ignores the fact that corporations and associations are embedded up to the hilt in the influence game Bardella calls the "policy process." There is no member of Congress who does not regularly get throttled by business-oriented lobbyists.

Also, as for "job creation," Bardella apparently fails to comprehend the enormous loss of middle class consumer wealth during our ongoing Dubya Decession, and the consequent shrinkage of aggregate demand for goods and services that then resulted in substantial unemployment and underemployment.

Don't worry, Chairman Issa,
zombies eat brains. You're safe. 
Issa's Zombieconomy Gang. Furthermore, as head of the Government Reform Committee, Issa will ensure that supply side economics -the GOP clarion call since Reagan - rises once again from its dirt nap. Supply side's terribly battered right hand man, deregulation, despite its recent massive failures, will become the primary cudgel of Issa's vitally important committee. In this Issa in Wonderland world, policies that caused the Dubya Decession, especially deregulation, will be revived as its cure. As Paul Krugman and John Quillen say, zombie ideas are hard to kill.

This GOP infatuation with supply side economics of the Laffer variety - at its best, an economic theory of highly limited application - ignores the readily available evidence: government revenue fell and economic progress nosedived due, in large part, to Bush's unfunded tax cuts (and years of financial deregulation, etc.). Moreover, tax revenues rose at first after Bush's tax cuts, but only due to a surge in corporate profits, and then revenues quickly dropped. Remember, too, these heralded growth enabling tax cuts have been in effect for seven years, long enough to demonstrate their efficacy, or not. And recall that under Clinton we emerged in 2000 with a surplus, despite what GOP and libertarian supply siders considered a confiscatory tax rate of 39% on the highest earners.

As for the deficit, the Big Lie is that the GOP cares about the deficit. They do not. Their policies are pro deficit, particularly the fiction that tax cuts need not be paid for because the (ignominious) Laffer Curve guarantees that the lower the tax the higher the government's tax receipts. Here's some data. Note the explosion of the deficit during the Reagan and Dubya years, after their large tax rate decreases.

Democrats (in blue), Republicans (in red)


President



Years as
President

National Debt
at Inauguration



National Debt
at End of
Presidency




% Increase in Debt
Over Entire Presidency

% Increase in Debt
Per Each 4-Year Term
Jimmy Carter4$706 billion$994 billion41%41%
Ronald Reagan8$994 billion$2867 billion189%94.5%
George H.W. Bush4$2867 billion$4351 billion52%52%
Bill Clinton8$4351 billion$5769 billion33%16.5%
George W. Bush8$5769 billion$10413 billion81%40.5%

[Data from AlterPolitics.]

And here are the top tax rates per president for the last seven decades or so:
Socialism was never so sweet . . .
And below, courtesy of Rocky Mountain Institute, is data on GDP growth from 1900 to 2008. Note the refutation of the GOP meme that the rate of GDP growth is always adversely affected by a high tax rate. For example, from 1950 to 1973, a period of what the present day GOP would call confiscatory tax rates on the highest earners, GDP grew 250% in less than 25 years.

Here's the data - first click on "Click to Interact," then run your cursor over the curve to see the associated dates and.  GDP data.




In Conclusion.

"The only chance we have to contain this is to vaporize
every living thing aboard that aircraft."
- Pentagon General, Flight of the Living Dead:
Outbreak on a Plane (2007)

Fight the zombieconomists!  Or they'll eat your social class for lunch . . .