An Inconvenient Amendment

All duded up in her cutesy Supreme Court Justice costume, Sweet Sarah was making her Halloween rounds at the Maryland radio station WMAL. On the air she disclosed a novel theory regarding the First Amendment that grew out of her uneasiness about the news media. Who could blame her? She's found journalists to be just a tad less irritating than a swarm of killer bees, buzzing her with those "Gotcha'" questions about what she can see from her front porch. But, instead of the usual right wing diatribe about the liberal mainstream media, she veered even farther right and took on the foundation principle of the free press, the First Amendment itself. She was out to swat herself some major killer bees.

The scene for her amendment bashing performance was a morning radio show hosted by the Wingnut's Wingnut Chris Plante. Chris and Sarah ranged across the wingnutosphere in the usual fashion, but then came an astounding exchange, based upon the right wing illusion that they do not actually already control much of the media themselves:

"CHRIS PLANTE: Is the news media doing a good job—are you getting a fair shake, are the Republicans getting a fair shake this year?

PALIN: I don't think they're doing their job when they suggest that calling a candidate out on their record, their plans for this country, and their associations is mean-spirited or negative campaigning. If they convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations, then I don't know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media." (Here's the audio) thanks to the blog Tiny Revolution.

So, there you have it, among the items on the McCain/Palin presidential agenda should the average I.Q. of the United States drop by 100 points between now and election day would be amending the First Amendment as follows:

Bill of Rights
First Amendment

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press, except to the extent that in exercising said freedom of the press the press exposes speech uttered or written by cutesy politicians which is patently incorrect, unarguably contrary to fact, or complete and utter hoo hah; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances. (amending language highlighted)

Mark Twain put it very well, "There are laws to protect the press's speech, but none that are worth anything to protect the people from the press." And this is Sarah Palin's problem. She's managed through a combination of utter lack of substantive knowledge and only the dimmest mastery of grade school syntax to often tie herself in linguistic and political knots. At those times it's not so much that the press corps creates a negative narrative, or concocts to simply misreport her words, it's simply that they report her actual words, verbatim.

There's no need for journalists to create a story about her "negative campaigning," it's there for all to see and hear, in her own unadulterated speech. So, as Twain wrote, there's not much to protect Sarah from their own vacuity or mean spiritedness. Reporting to the public such speech is the premier freedom of the press embodied in the First Amendment. Without it we would long ago have fallen prey to tyrants, and the Bush administration's assault on the press should stand as a high (or low) water mark of that effort to subvert us through manipulation of the press through propaganda.

If Sarah wants better press, then perhaps she ought to practice better speech. As Michael Godwin (yes, he of Godwin's Law*) wrote, “The First Amendment was designed to protect offensive speech, because nobody ever tries to ban the other kind.” That principle is the sine qua non of the freedom of the press. And that's where Sarah needs intensive remedial training, perhaps even before she returns to Alaska next Wednesday where Troopergate still roils.

* Godwin's Law: "As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one."

BOO!!! Like in Really Really BOO!!!

Introducing the Pappy McCracky Halloween mask! Note that VP Cheney has sued McCracky for infringing his trademarked smile.

Lest We Forget . . .

They're still in charge . . .

Who the Hell Is THAT Pallin' With Palin?

Sarah Palin's reminded us regularly about Barack Obama's "friendship" with Bill Ayers and other unnamed, but presumably as questionable, anti-Americans. Yet, today Sarah Palin finds herself potentially on the other side of her own argument. Here she is "pallin' around" with known felon Ted "My Wife Set Me Up" Stevens. Will she resent anyone mentioning her obvious "close relationship" with the grizzled Lion of the Senate? Will she say that the liberal mainstream media is blowing her simple business relationship with Ted beyond all reason. You betcha! And will she then stop beating the Ayers/Obama drum? We'll see, but I wouldn't betcha.

The Casual Corruption of Ted Stevens

Today, a federal jury in Washington D.C. found Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, 84, guilty of accepting and concealing from Senate financial-disclosure requirements hundreds of thousands of dollars in free home renovations and other gifts, primarily from Bill Allen, former owner of the Alaskan oil field-services company, VECO. Stevens, a 40 year veteran of the Senate, is the longest serving Republican, and quite likely among the more cantankerous.

And, during the trial, cantankerous was as cantankerous did. In perhaps his biggest tactical miscue, Stevens took the stand in his own defense, although his defense was to remain offensively on offense. In fact, the judge, in a topsy turvy move, had to warn the Senator to not harass the prosecutor. Alternately denying and griping, the "Lion of the Senate" even threw his wife under the snow sled, blaming her for certain financial discrepancies in his records. He often maintained that he was unaware that a variety of expensive goods and services he received were gifts from Mr. Allen, and other friends.

For a man well known for his intimate involvement in all things legislative, the Senator asked the jury to believe he was utterly divorced from decisions and control of major additions to his home, additions that doubled its size. He didn't quite know the circumstances of a $2,700 massage chair, strangely proffering it was a "loan," nor did he recall the provenance of a large statue depicting migrating salmon. Who wouldn't want answers about that? It's as if he'd return home from D.C. and find all kinds of things that just appeared from God knows where. He must have spent a lot of time walking around the house in a daze, scratching his head.

Well, the Senator's denials didn't convince the jury. They likely thought that if a massive salmon statue were to just appear in their homes they would ask, "Honey, do you know anything about the big metal fish in the living room?" One would imagine jurors often wondered how he ever managed a single bit of legislation if he was as casual about the Senate. Admittedly, the Senator has reached the age where memory fades, but this was a man notorious for his vigor and exercise of control. Undoubtedly too, he must not have presented a sympathetic witness as he hectored the prosecution throughout.

The fact is, Senator Stevens had grown accustomed to growling himself through the halls of Congress. His 40 years there had conferred the insulation of power. His routine reelections had removed him farther and farther from true scrutiny. Voters were the first to realize that his seniority placed him at the forefront of the Senate; he, more than anyone. made Alaska's relatively small number of voices heard. If that patronage allowed an occasional bridge to nowhere, well that constitutes the spoils of a long and loud career. He'd grown in his power to a point where he may have forgotten that he too is a servant, a servant of the people and the law. He'd allowed himself to become far too casual, and in the end, far too careless. He likely believes that his indiscretions were, if anything, small, and justice far too severe. Yet, it's easy to imagine that the jurors sensed in the cantankerous old Lion of the Senate a man who ignored too many important principles of honesty that the jurors believed - despite the daily onslaught of political corruption everywhere - ought to be the DNA of public service.

In any event, the man who once declared that the Internet was a "series of tubes" may also be witness to his reelection bid disappearing into one. Yet, legally, there is nothing to prevent him from continuing his bid. Should he win, he could serve, at least until his fate is determined by his appeals, or the Senate amasses the 67 votes needed to expel him. But above all, Alaska loves Ted Stevens, and tonight when announcing his intent to appeal the verdicts, he said, "I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate. I will come home on Wednesday and ask for your vote." Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the Democratic contender, still has his work cut out for him. Now is not the time to be casual. The Senator's a lion in Winter, but he's still on the prowl, and a wounded lion is ever more dangerous.

T.S. ANYTHING's . . . . Yakety Yak!

Here's They'll Say ANYTHING's first Yakety Yak!

It'll be a regular feature offered on an irregular schedule, and if that's not a good hedge I don't know what is. Yakety Yak! will feature short items that come to my attention as I move in and out of consciousness. I'll jot them down on a bag or a shirt or a computer screen or a cat. In any event, after selecting things, I'll carefully put them in no particular order and do what we call "publish."

My take on these tidbits might be a bit less than totally verbatim accounts of the players' comments, but if I put " " around something it's real. Anyway, this is supposed to be my blog!! So here's the first TSAnything Yakety Yak!! Don't write to me about the content or anything related to the content or to the blog. I take the responsibility, but not the blame.

And enjoy the Coasters and the original 1958 "Yakety Yak!"

*** Yakety: Learning to Live on Just $300,000,000:

Dennis Kneale, CNBC, recently bloviated that there ought to be "hearings" focused on those misunderstood billionaires who've lost money during this credit crisis, among them being Rupert Murdoch who's down from about 6 Billion $$$$$$ to about 3 Billion $$$.

*** Yak: On CNBC (sparingly, for obvious reasons lately):

Dow Almost Finishes UP!

*** Yakety: The First TSAnything "Seeing Things Clearly" Award Goes To:

Dylan Ratigan, CNBC Fast Money man for his observation to Maria Bartilomo, "What we're seeing now is not irrational panic, Maria, it's more like rational panic." CNBC, 10-24-08.

*** Yak: McCain Think Tankers Edify. (McCain rally, 10-24-08):

*** Yakety: A "flaw"? You THINK?

Last week, Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve and laissez faire economist extraordinaire, appeared before the House Financial Oversight Committee. In a moment of shocked disbelief, he expressed disbelieving shock: "Those of us who looked to the self-interest of financial institutions to protect shareholder's equity are in a state of shocked disbelief." Alan sheepishly - but admirably - admitted to the committee that he had found "a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works."

Who knew? Mr. Greenspan has been contacted by an unnamed Internet video producer to advise on their upcoming vid, Bankers Gone WILD!

*** Yak: "No, no! Heaven forfend! It's not because they're racists, but . . . well . . . um . . . it's because they're . . . ahhhhhhh . . . .anti-equalists!"

Reported by digby at Hullabaloo on 10-25-08, John Moody, President of FOX, wrote the following on his blog after the news of the alleged "Black Attack" on a McCain staffer, Ashley Todd, in Pittsburgh. She quickly admitted this to be a false police report, i.e. there was no 6'4" black male attacker, no robbery, no nothing:

Part of the appeal of, and the unspoken tension behind, Senator Obama’s campaign is his transformational status as the first African-American to win a major party’s presidential nomination.

That does not mean that he has erased the mutual distrust between black and white Americans, and this incident could become a watershed event in the 11 days before the election.

If Ms. Todd’s allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee.

*** Yakety: Sarah Palin Insurgency Award to . . .

Sarah Palin for going off the McCain reservation in the last ten days of the campaign. Why? She blames her hidebound GOP handlers for a bad product roll out, implying, one supposes, it was they who hadn't informed her that the VP is not Senator-in-Chief. And, really, where were they when she needed to memorize the names of a few newspapers? Palin's also miffed about her preparation for televised interviews and her particular lack of inside-the-beltway information that Katie Couric might ask questions. Let's not even talk about sentence structure. And that Troopergate mess! Why hadn't they told her about that. Why didn't they just pick Tina Fey??

So, as the McCain campaign winds down and down and down, the sassy chilly state Governor is going native on 'em, or as native as she can get on a $150,000 GOP wardrobe. She's likely seeing that her only choice these days is to preserve her own hide, so she's regularly ignoring McCain staffers' directions and coming up with her own grade-A moosesh*t. And moosesh*t served up with that cutesy twang may be just what she needs to stay viable for 2012. Perhaps some remedial research on fruit flies might also help . . .

*** Yak: YIPPEEEEE!! The following space for doodling!!!!

Sarah Palin, Prezident

Most of us have awakened in the night screaming ourselves out of a nightmare of Prezident Palin. Well, just for fun, go here and browse around . . . click on the images. Thanks for the link to my good pal Barry.

McCain's New Campaign Tactic Shoots for the Stars!

As the campaign moves toward its two minute warning, McCain/Palin polls show an emerging pattern: nearly every demographic is moving to Obama, including the coveted independent voters. The campaign has tried to energize the GOP base, the social conservatives, the anti-social conservatives, the youth vote, the elderly vote, the menopause vote, the mouth breathers, the right wing Democrats, the wingnuts, the Reagan Republicans, the farmers, the Hispanic vote, the anti-Hispanic vote, the NASCAR vote, the lunatic fringe, the disaffected lunatic fringe, and just plain lunatics. They've tried calling Obama inexperienced, a terrorist sympathizer, a Democrat, a Harvard man, a community organizer, a terrorist, a leftie, a liberal, a Muslim, a tall guy, a socialist, a communist, an anti-American, a smart guy, a smoker, an anti-smoker, a basketball player, an elitist, an anti-American, an orator, a bloviator, a flip flopper, a dreamer, a nightmare, and an Arab man from Hawaii who has fathered two black children. None of these seem to be gaining any traction with the voters.

Moreover, the troubled McCain camp now sees that the public has moved from simply disagreeing with Mr. McCain's policies to visceral fear of his voice and visage. "Candidly, we're in serious trouble when our own party leaders run screaming from his rallies ," says a discouraged McCain campaign worker. So, as the clock ticks inexorably toward November 4, McCain campaign strategists have recently market tested a new concept: Barack Obama, illegal alien from outer space.

Focus groups report the campaign's presentations are reminiscent of the movie Alien, but "on steroids." Many market testers noted with displeasure the eerie similarity between the name of the alien, Klaatu, in the 1951 outer space film classic The Day the Earth Stood Still, and the first name of the Democratic party challenger, Barack. "That's gotta scare any thinking man," said focus group member Bobby "Bib" Hollister from the battleground state of North Carolina. A manic McCain tactician reports, "The idea seems to be testing well," and adds happily, "People in our test groups are actually wetting themselves, and much more so than after actual McCain or Palin rallies."

So, within the next few days, or by the next full moon, the campaign will unveil their new approach linking Obama with the planet EX-Tar 4Z in the Andromeda M1 galaxy. "Of course, we're hoping that our efforts will peak on Halloween," explains a McCain staffer, "Look for our O-BOO-ma ads in all media. I think you'll start to notice the elongated ears on the man, and you're going to start to wonder." Also in the works, and aimed at influencing the anti-immigration voter, is a one-hour television special, "Obama, the Ultimate Illegal ALIEN . . ."

It makes sense, say political strategists of all stripes. After all, GOP plans to attack Democratic voter registration in the courts is falling flat, and their newest policy arguments have caused riotous uncontrollable laughter in focus groups, so what is left other than to literally scare the public into staying home on November 4rd?

"In other words, Congressman, I fu*ked up!"

Today, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking for the laissez faire tribe, informed the House Financial Oversight Committee that "those of us who looked to the self-interest of financial institutions to protect shareholder's equity are in a state of shocked disbelief . . ." There. It's official. The last group of earth dwellers who are shocked into disbelief by unregulated bankers-run-wild tanking the economy is on record. Most of the rest of us knew that a long time ago. Remember the Gilded Age? Remember the S&L crisis? Remember ENRON? Remember the Credit Crunch? Remember . . . last week?

Remember Ayn Rand? She's the iconic libertarian philosopher and writer of books with enchanting family values titles like The Virtue of Selfishness. She's the well-known superstar of the laissez faire crowd who never met a tax or a regulation that they can't take a swipe at. Their basic economic theory is simple, "What's mine is mine, and what's yours can be mine too if you don't watch it!" In the 1950s she was also Alan Greenspan's mentor. In 1957, responding to criticism of Rand's Atlas Shrugged, a particularly nasty take on the human condition, Mr. Greenspan wrote, "Atlas Shrugged is a celebration of life and happiness. Justice is unrelenting. Creative individuals and undeviating purpose and rationality achieve joy and fulfillment. Parasites who persistently avoid either purpose or reason perish as they should.” Note the delightful juxtaposition of the first and last sentences, by the way.

In any event, poor Alan sheepishly admitted to the committee that he had found "a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." After all, despite ENRON, the junk bond crises, and all the rest, he'd "been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.'' This is nothing more than an admission that for most of his career he's been purposely blind to the consistent rule that unregulated markets more often than not lead to disruptions and disasters. Welcome to the reality-based community, Mr. Greenspan!

Spy Devices Uncovered at McCain Rally!!!

Last Saturday, prior to John McCain's appearance, North Carolina Congressman Robin Hayes was warming up the crowd in Concord, N.C. He vaguely remembered saying a few mild things critical of liberals, and extolling the old-fashioned values of hard work. He also recalled putting in a word or two for God. Nothing really Lincolnesque, just the usual things politicos say to get a crowd revved up for its candidate. A day or two later, however, the Congressman was stunned to learn that covert spies had infiltrated the rally and had used sophisticated "listening devices" to slyly preserve - verbatim, in his own voice - the Congressman's every word.

Deftly employing these state-of-the-art "tape players," individuals hiding in the crowd were able to secretly create an actual "recording." When "played back" to a stunned Mr. Hayes, he could actually hear his own voice exhorting the crowd that “liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God.” (Hear this "recording" below.)

Mr Hayes was astonished by what he heard, saying he had no memory of uttering such words in exactly that particular order. He explained that he had meant to express exactly the same sentiments but in much different words, words, he explained, that would not be as direct or as clear or as attributable.

The Congressman was also quite concerned that these devices exist at all, and that they can so easily be deployed to spy on citizens who are patriotically pursuing their Constitutional right to employ free speech that the speaker expects the listener to forget rather quickly. Mr. Hayes promised that, pending his reelection, he will ask for Congressional hearings to determine how these listening devices might be regulated or, at least, prohibited from recording political speech.

Michelle Bachmann in Campaign Fundraising Overdrive

Michelle Bachmann, far right Minnesota Republican Congresswoman, appeared on MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews yesterday to throw a few of the usual Hail Mary passes from the McCain campaign playbook. Constantly losing ground to Matthews' defense, she kept grinding away at Barack Obama's ties to Bill Ayers and others she deemed anti-American, including Mrs. Obama. Then, after Matthews maneuvered her away from the campaign playbook, she called an audible suggesting that the "news media should do a penetrating expose . . . of the views of the Members of Congress to find out if they are pro-America or anti-America." Calling that particular fullback up the middle reminded one of those hard-nosed games of yesteryear, and of the hardest nose of them all, Senator Joseph McCarthy and his delightful Communist witch hunt, blacklists, and paranoia.

That play may not have won the game at Hardball, but it did make the highlight reel. And it also succeeded mightily in the fundraising game by bringing in nearly $500,ooo to the House race in Mrs. Bachmann's district. Problem is. it's all for her opponent, Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. His campaign released the good news less than 24 hours after Bachmann's night game on Hardball, "Since Congresswoman Bachmann's outrageous remarks, my campaign has raised $438,346.57, and we're working to reach $500,000 by 5 p.m. today."

So, the Tinklenberg campaign turns its thought to Mrs. Bachmann's next media appearance, and prays that this particular Bachmann stays in overdrive.

From Nomad New York: Saying Something Back to the Anythings They'll Say

I've just read Nomad New York's brilliantly affecting writing about the racism and bigotry that has in recent weeks reared its ugliest head at McCain and Palin rallies. The writer is a person I'm lucky enough to call a friend, and her blog is Nomad New York. Enough said. Here, let her eloquence speak for itself:

Nomad New York: Why is Joe Six-Pack afraid? Why am I?

I am around the same age as Obama. Like Obama, my parents were mixed race. My father was an Anthropologist, as was Obama’s mother; I lived in another country as a child. Like Obama, I grew up with a wider viewfinder than many Americans yet I’ve always thought that I was an American. Like America, I was the ultimate melting pot. I am descended from early white colonists and from slaves. I am descended from Europeans who immigrated to the United States in the 19th century. I am not Joe Six Pack.

I’ve spent the past week watching what has been going on at the Republican rallies. Barring the Bradley effect, I don’t think that McCain can win this race but something very ugly has reared its head in this country and it’s not going to go away.

What are we, those of us who are not Joe Six-Pack to make of the ugly racist and xenophobic events at McCain-Palin rallies over the last week? What is Joe so afraid of?

Joe is afraid that a Black man can succeed. Joe is afraid that not only can a Black man succeed, but that he can succeed far beyond any place that Joe can imagine succeeding himself. Joe will do anything to stop it.

This world is not uncharted territory for me. It is the Jim Crow south that my father grew up in, so I can tell you what I’m afraid of.

This is the place where people needed to point to the lack of black success as proof of black inferiority after prospering and successful black communities and businesses have been burned to the ground.

This is the place that only allows certain "acceptable" and unqualified African Americans or women like Sarah Palin to be appointed to positions of real power but where not much is expected from them. Conversely, this is the place that hires the most qualified woman or African American like Colin Powell, and then undermines them and sets them up for certain failure.

This is the place where my brother with his exotic Japanese middle name is not really American and where Hawaii is too exotic to be one of the 50 states. This is a place where my children, half English-Jewish, half mongrel are not real Americans. This is a place where a man can put up a sign in his yard calling Barack Obama "half breed muslin" and be proud of it. This is a place where black people are not supposed to be articulate and if they are, they are "elitists" and they are "uppity".

I'm not saying that we are on the edge of a holocaust or that we need to panic. I am saying that we can't afford to write off the rantings of Palin's followers or to dismiss these concerns as mere "hyperbole". I believe that we should to pay attention to history and be aware of the parallels to events in our own and in other countries. We need to remember the radio hate fueled catastrophe of Rwanda and the religious oppression of Afghanastan and understand what led up to these events. I hate to bring up the Nazi reference, I don't believe that my fellow Americans are "Nazi's" or that McCain is like Hitler but understanding the climate in Germany before the Holocaust is important. We should never forget the causes of these events. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

I love this country, but I am afraid. I’m afraid that, as some have been known to tell me over the past 8 years, I am believed to be Un-American. I’m afraid that, because of (or in spite of) my education and any small success that I’ve achieved in my lifetime I will be forced into the metaphoric back of the bus, perhaps the way that women were in Afghanistan under the Taliban. I'm afraid that too many good people will close their eyes and pretend that it isn't happening. I'm afraid that Joe Six-Pack will sit in front of me thumping his bible, his sense of superiority will be restored and all will be right in his world again but that mine will be gone.

Posted by nomadnewyork at 9:28 AM

When Saying ANYTHING Gets Scary

Sometimes the things they'll say cross over from garden variety inept or untruthful or moronic to the horrific and debase and psychotic. Digby, over at Hullabaloo, has the story of how Sacramento, California, Republican county chairman, Robert MacGlashen, took "credit" (strange term, but perfectly wingnutty) for the ad suggesting we "waterboard Barack Obama." Showing the opaque morality and utter ignorance of the far right wingnut, MacGlashen found it within his brain stem to vocalize, "Some people find it offensive, others do not. I cannot comment on how people interpret things." Can't comment on how your average "people" might "interpret" this: "Hugo Chavez, Jane Fonda, and Hamas are all voicing support for Barack Obama"? Agreed, that needs a meeting of Talmudic scholars to noodle over. "Just what," Rabbi, "are they trying to enunciate? What is the purpose?" Let's go ecumenical and call in the Vatican Curia and every linguist we can round up.

Mr. MacGlashen's comment proves a corollary to our blog motto, i.e. they'll say ANYTHING about the anythings they say . . . Truth, fairness, humanity, and reality are on a permanent holiday for wingnuts like Mr. MacGlashen, and he's the Chairman of the Sacramento County GOP! He's the one they chose as their public face, their media guy. . . Imagine the folks the county GOP didn't think were quite ready to meet and greet the public. Call Central Casting, Torches & Pitchforks Dept.

Here's another one from the Torches & Pitchforks crowd. It's a nasty molting of the lizard skinned Republican Party of Virginia, reported at RK , Virginia's Online Progressive Community. They highlight a recent GOP mailer that plays the old and worn out wingnut meme that Obama is an "appeaser" who endangers America by suggesting that we talk with those who oppose us. RK then describes the return envelope included with the mailing, "a brown-skinned man who looks very much like Barack Obama, with the words 'America must look evil in the eye and never flinch' superimposed over his face, [and this] is vile. Whether or not it IS Barack Obama - and it's close enough that a lot of people could reasonably conclude that it is - this is basically arguing that anyone with skin darker than baby powder is a potential threat."

Nothing unusual here for the RPV. Their state party Chairman, Jeff Frederick - channeling the Sacrament County Chairman MacGlashen - recently offered the psychotic observation that "both Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden have friends that have bombed the Pentagon. That is scary."

What is correctly scary is these kind of low blows, and notice, it's coast to coast. Evil winds blow. Forecast: more of the same for a long, long time.

Three Debates, Three Strikes:

John McCain, Yer OUT!

Even the conservatives panned Pappy McCracky's latest at bat . . . So, who's he got on the bench, now? Palin's been moved to utility infielder. The rest of the team - and most of those fans still in the stands - have tossed their rally caps for paper bags over their heads. It's moving into the ninth inning and there is no "next year."

On another note, for my wife, a long suffering Red Sox fan, as the lad above says, "GO Red SOX!!" I seem to remember that they were down 3-1 in another series not too long ago, and to a much better team (my faded Yankees). And tonight they've got their 18-3 pitcher Matsuzaka throwing! Don't break out the champagne yet, Rays . . . or at all.

It's a Bit Early for This, but . . . BOO!

With Halloween approaching, John McCain has unveiled yet another way to incite fear in his crowds: a possible Democratic House, Senate, and Presidency! Beeeee Scaaaaared. . . And truly, this vision pushes the wingnut's fright button almost as much as an all gay Marine Corps or man-cow marriages. "Senator Obama is measuring the drapes." Pappy McCracky intoned yesterday in Virginia, "and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes [and] increase spending . . ." His crowd groaned in reply as if they'd been physically assaulted by a husky Hilary Clinton costumed trick or treater.

Well, as we always say here, they will say anything, and kudos to them, since among the dependable triggers in wingnut nation, Democrats in control of two of the three branches may just bring out those undecided wingnuts in the remaining battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. These are the Republicans (and right wing Dems) who were pitched the Palin gambit, far right loons who'd really rather stay at home than vote for the John McCain they've always viewed as soft on many of their issues. So, it's a savvy choice on the McCain campaign's behalf - if a losing bet - to pursue them. They may make the difference in some states.

Yes Boo ?

But what about the underlying message, that Democrats would revert to their stereotype as taxers and spenders? If recent history is any guide, it's actually the Republican Congress and Presidency that fits the stereotype. Since Reagan, we've witnessed a period of Republican Presidential profligacy that gives the lie to their claims of fiscal responsibility. Look at the graph below. Under Reagan, the national debt literally skyrocketed, then fell during the Clinton years, only to rise again to a 50 year high under Dubya. Yes, Reagan had a split Congress (a GOP Senate from 1981 to 1987 and a Democratic House), but it actually provided less funding than Reagan requested in his budgets. Note too that in modern times the national debt has been higher before now, but that was during WWII. At other times of conflict you'll notice a trend upwards as well (see Korean, Vietnam, and, less obviously, the Persian Gulf war years).


What Dubya did to balloon the national debt was right out of the Reagan era's supply side book, lower taxes on the wealthy, which, contrary to supply side "voodoo" economics, leads to reduced federal tax revenue. Simultaneously, like Reagan, Dubya increased spending by increasing the deficit and debt financing (that's where China got all those Treasury bonds and political leverage). This debt financing made it possible, in effect, to move much spending "off budget" and hide it "in plain sight" from the average American.


No Boo ?

Republicans once screamed like banshees about this kind of deficit spending, but suddenly, as Dick Cheney put it to then Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill in 2002. they maintain that "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." So much for fiscal prudence. Surely too, this is not a GOP phenomenon. Whatever happened to the fiscally conservative Democrats like Sam Nunn? They do exist, in the Blue Dogs, for example, but the intense national debate about deficits of the late 1980's (remember H. Ross Perot's pie charts?) largely disappeared under Dubya.

One of the explanations offered by these new believers in the debts-don't-matter crowd is that the deficit, and the national debt itself, is unalarming as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), i.e. the value of all the goods and services produced in the U.S. in a year. Under Dubya, for example, the national debt has doubled to nearly $11 Trillion, and that represents a move from about 57% to 72% of GDP in eight years. Keep that in mind, and that a healthy portion of this debt is held in foreign hands, particularly by China and Japan.

Now, how does the U.S. pay the interest on its national debt? Through tax revenue. So, another way to view the national debt is in terms of the necessary interest payments as a percentage of the actual on-the-books U.S. budget. In those terms, with a nearly $3 Trillion budget, the Treasury has paid approximately $450 Billion in interest payments on the national debt in FY 2008. That's 15% of the budget. With military spending ($650 Billion) and Health & Human Services spending (primarily Medicare, so-called "welfare," etc.) at $750 Billion there's another $1.4 Trillion. Total these three items and you have $1.850 Trillion, or approximately 60% of the entire budget.

So how bad, really, is all this? After all, a household can manage a 15% interest expense charge per year. Yet, what happens when that household's income drops due to a layoff or illness? The interest payments don't get suspended, and many families face bankruptcy. On a national level, this analogy does not hold, since the U.S., unlike the average family, has a handy printing press with plenty of paper and ink to print $.

True Boo ?

When the nation is mired in a recession, as it is now, a few things happen that cause the national debt and deficit situation to worsen. Both the GDP and tax revenues fall as business revenue plummets, personal income drops, and capital gains dry up due to losses in the equity markets. Yet the debt remains, and, in fact, grows. It grows in real terms since in times of recession the government provides fiscal stimulus through further deficit spending, and issues more federal securities to fund its needs. Thus is created that "perfect storm" where the size of the national debt and the deficit grows in real terms and as a percentage of GDP since GDP declines. But still, we've been through recessions before, and we've recovered rather smartly. So how is this different?

What follows in the present fiscal "perfect storm" may cause us real problems unlike those we've faced in the past. Firstly, the national debt figures cited above do not include the final costs of the Rescue/Bail Out which likely will cost a trillion dollars or more. (Whether the government/taxpayer ever recovers any value for these investments remains well in the future.) So, for the foreseeable future the U.S. will be borrowing heavily to fund various bail outs and fiscal stimuli. Also, extending the present scope of the bail out plan to non-financial corporations to encourage mergers, etc. is being considered.

In any event, this coming week, the Treasury is set to sell some $160 Billion in securities into a market that is already quite saturated with our paper. And this sale is only one of many. What happens when we offer securities in a Treasury-crowded market, where buyers are both scarce and nervous? The price for those securities goes down, and when the price drops for an interest bearing security, the interest paid by the seller (us) goes up. This in turn has a double effect, both negative: it causes a rise in interest payments just as, in a recession, our tax revenue is falling, and it causes a rise in interest rates just when, in a recession, we need interest rates to decline. Boo, indeed.

Boo Hoo ?

So, John McCain's latest attempt to shepherd the far right vote of both parties to his side rests on an untenable and simply untrue assumption about federal deficits and debt. It's been primarily the Republican party that has ballooned those deficits, not the Dems. On one point he is right, though, it would make a truly frightening Halloween movie (at least for economists who do not get out much), but it's one his own party has scripted, directed, produced, and starred in.

With all the unresolved banking and financial industry issues that we face, and the consequently huge financing needs of the U.S., it is difficult to foresee anything less than a Dubya recession that we will all remember. Whether in the end it is labeled the Dubya Depression remains a suckers bet, so drastic are the possibilities and so uncharted are the waters. Regardless of the ultimate title of these tough times, we will see radical changes in how we - individually and as a nation - view debt in the future. The fear now is that we will push our creditors too far, and thus see interest rates soar, and our fiat dollar thus "debased." Should that occur our recession will be deep and long, and our Uncle Sam may, indeed, lose his shirt, and pants, and nearly all else.

But, let's remember, it's always a bad bet to go all in against the dollar and against the United States. We have the full attention of the financial markets and have a developing bail out plan that improves each day, and we have finally brought the other major financial powers at least partly on board. These are very good signs, and despite the fact that our national debt and deficit will soar in the years ahead, the world will likely give us the breathing room we need to once again recover

No More Sequels!

"You F*cked Up! You Trusted Us!"

I just heard Congressman Rob Portman (R-Ohio) on Meet the Press explain how John McCain will address what the Republicans now label an urgent need for fiscal discipline. Among the tools he'll use are, of course, the always handy tax cuts for the wealthy. On the spending side a President McCain will use "a scalpel,"and "a hatchet," to "eliminate programs." So, here we go again. It's the usual GOP script after they've been in charge for a while. Let's not forget, they've caused a disaster in governance while blaming the other party, but they never fail to then advise the usual "remedies," i.e. the one's that got us into this fix in the first place: tax cuts for the wealthy and draconian across the board spending cuts for everyone else. Oh yeah, and how about more privatizing, like McCain's ideas for health care, and then let's tax those health benefits too! All this from the folks who consciously engineered the massively horrific, expensive, and unjustified war in Iraq, and pushed supply side domestic policies that "trickled up" to the wealthy, bled the middle class, and further impoverished the poor.

From one of the chief enablers of the Bush years, Congressman Portman's advice of more of the same would -- in the blessedly now unlikely election of John McCain -- yield again a result a lot like what we've lived through in the Dubya years. They want us to trust them again, and just after they wrecked everything in sight. I sometimes think that they must get together and laugh out loud about it and, like the scene above from the classic 1978 film Animal House, clap us heartily on the back and say, "You f*cked up! You trusted us!"

Toga! Toga! Toga!"

Fast forward thirty years to the national sequel, Animal House 2001-2008. Notice the Animal House storyline: laissez faire everything and a capacity for wild misrule worthy of Delta house. Where's Dean Wormer now? Like Delta house, Dubya era GOP rule has gloried in all the "feasances": mal, mis, and non, though not at all as endearingly. Unfortunately, not many have highlighted enough that this insane governmental riot is not a mere coincidence of Republican rule, it's actually the underlying strategic purpose of their rule, although even GOP true believers cannot help but be shocked at what Dubya's inept tactics have wrought. They're secretly - but sometimes openly - proud of their failing grades. Typical Republican misgovernment since Reagan has resulted in increased spending while simultaneously lowering taxes, and then, as a kind of cover up, using debt financing instead of tax receipts. All of that has yielded enormous deficits and $11 trillion of national debt. Remember when Republicans railed against deficit spending? Just where has "double secret probation" been these last eight years when we needed it?

Roll the Cameras!

Well, now they say deficits don't matter, well, their deficits don't matter. Given the aftermath of the eight year toga party that was the Bush administration and a heavily weighted Republican Congress, they leave a pile of beer cans and pizza boxes that has to be cleaned up by the next occupant of Dubya's Delta House. It's a nasty job. A lot of cleaning and repainting and carpentry. Importantly, a lot of non-romantic labors, and that's just to get the house back into some kind of decent order. Quite a clean up when it's on the national level, one that will require some real pain for all. And when in a few years the economy recovers, and the needed reduction in the debt and deficit inherited from the Bush years begins, a President Obama will have to raise taxes, and make some unpopular decisions. And then? Roll the cameras! Here comes the reconstituted GOP with its anti-tax, anti-government, anti-regulation messages, messages that, to an electorate in the midst of an economic recovery, sound like "Hey everybody, let's TOGA!!"

No More Sequels!

It almost seems scripted. In fact, in an eerie way, it is. Republican "misgovernment," I believe, purposely sows the seeds of distrust in government solutions and encourages a mammoth financial cost that each succeeding Democratic party is left to address. Each time the Republicans get their hands on the till, they then reduce government revenue, and undermine government agencies with poor leadership and underhanded politics. Their tax policies, deregulation manias, and privatization programs enrich the already wealthy -- in the Bush years billionaires bloomed while the middle class wilted -- and these income distribution changes are hard to reverse. Unfortunately, the public, in good times, seems to buy into their mantra that all government is suspect, or as Grandpa Reagan said, "Government is the problem, not the solution." Since Reagan, GOP "accomplishments" have led to a continual dismantling of the sense of neighborly, cooperative citizenship instilled during the Roosevelt years when Depression was the result of Hoover's laissez faire policies and rampant selfishness. The cycle will likely continue with President Obama, unless he inherits an economy that provides an "FDR moment." In that case, Republican laissez faire economics may again languish for decades. Imagine . . . . . . .

the GOP on

permanent

double secret probation!

Dick Fuld Lately of the Late Lehman Bros. Meets the House Financial Services Committee

and is bluntly questioned by two agitated Congresswomen:

The questioning gets a bit heated . . .

Yelling Fire in a Crowded Theatre: McCain Campaign Rallies the Base

This Pappy McCracky rally really got out of hand. Pappy asked what he may have thought was a rhetorical question - "Who is the real Barack Obama?" - but he got an answer: "Terrorist!" Then, a few moments later, it slipped into non sequitor territory when another supporter yelled "We are Christians!" This family values crowd was a scarily high octane blend, and the analogy may be apt: high octane enough to explode.

The "terrorist" shout-out seemed to knock Pappy back on his heels. Although the video is a bit out of focus, have a look at his "WTF?" expression. And that ought to be his expression. More importantly, that kind of audience response should have come as no surprise to him. His campaign has taken the lowest road available lately, and has pandered to the electorate's baser instincts. Why would Pappy be surprised that these comments would follow and with palpable venom behind them? Now that's a rhetorical question,

Certainly candidates cannot be held responsible for their supporter's rants. But given the vitriol expressed by crowd members at both McCain's and Palin's recent rallies isn't there a moral obligation for their campaign to at least address the situation? To say, "Look, my friends, we understand your energy, your passion, but we do not condone . . ."? If we weren't speaking of a campaign run by the likes of Karl Rove protege Steve Schmidt, the answer would be a clear "Yes!" Yet, the campaign now is calculated to appeal directly and forcefully to those base instincts of fear, anger, and retribution. McCain/Palin is trying to shore up the base ("base" in both senses of the word) and to energize its desire to get out and vote.


Also, let's not forget, that Republican campaign quantifiers have seen the state polls, and have frankly and strategically run up the white flag in most states. Their new emphasis on attack-attack-attack is aimed at the few truly battleground states left, states like Florida, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina, once solidly card carrying members of the Dubya coalition, now slipping towards Obama.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but (O.K., I will) they're trying to rally the racist and bigot vote in those states; "Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more." Not that they were ever going to be Obama voters, but they were possible non voters. These are the Dubya coalition folks who early on in the primary season turned their backs on McCain for his less than consistent "social issues"/"family values stance(s), and more recently because of his financial crisis stance(s). These are the voters he hoped to lure with the addition of Palin, but the economy - and the predictably economy-led polls - didn't oblige. More fuel was needed for the fire, and thus the all out smear campaign will likely take up the remainder of the campaign season.

General Motors Just Dropped Its Engine

The mostly inept or inapt analogies with 1929 are a natural feature of the economic landscape. Yet, one rather eerie comparison with those days was just reported on CNBC: General Motors' market capitalization just fell to 1929 levels. Think of it as one of the Mount Rushmore Presidents shrinking to George W. Bush's hat size, or to about the size of Dick Cheney's capacity for empathy (O.K., it's actually a lot larger than that . . .).

Whatever comparisons or analogies one chooses, in Wall Street worth, from March of 2000 to today, GM has fallen from $52 Billion to $2 Billion. That is called its "market capitalization" and is the simple mathematical result of multiplying the total of outstanding GM shares by its present per share price on the exchange (today approximately $6.50/share). By any measure, just like the depression era Cadillac in the video above. the producer of American auto icons Cadillac, Buick, Chevrolet, and Oldsmobile has run off the road and gone turtle up into a ditch.

Check the CNN chart below: in less than ten years GM has lost more than 90% of its value, $90+/share to about $6.50/share, with one-half of that decline in the last month. And there's a comparison with the depression that might well be called apt.